Mucarsel-Powell Edges Curbelo in Latest NYT Poll

MIAMI – With less than two weeks to go before Election Day, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell holds a one-point edge over incumbent Republican Carlos Curbelo, according to a new poll completed Wednesday night by the New York Times. It’s the latest sign that Debbie’s message is resonating with voters in the 26th Congressional District, and that she’s driving the race in these last few weeks as it tightens in her favor.

In the 499-person live survey, completed on Wednesday night, Mucarsel-Powell led with 45% of the vote compared to Curbelo’s 44%. She led strongly among independent voters, garnering 53% of their support, while Curbelo only obtained 33%. To view the complete poll results, click here.
The poll shows the race moved four points in Mucarsel-Powell’s favor since last month, when a similar poll by the New York Times showed Curbelo up by three points, 47-44.
In both polls, a larger share of voters reported they would prefer Democrats to take control of the U.S. House over Republicans.
“The momentum is firmly in Debbie’s favor, and every vote will be crucial as we head into these last weeks,” said Melvin Félix, a spokesperson for the Mucarsel-Powell campaign. “From expanding access to quality, affordable healthcare to supporting responsible, common-sense gun reform, Debbie has worked hard to make sure families in South Florida know they have a clear choice in one of our nation’s most critical and defining elections. From Miami-Dade to Key West, we’ve seen how Debbie’s strong, unifying message is connecting with voters who are eager to send a fresh new voice to Washington.”
The poll was part of a series commissioned by the New York Times to cover the races in some of the most competitive congressional districts across the country. Unlike other similar surveys, poll responses were published and displayed in real time, allowing readers to track results from start to finish.
This most recent New York Times poll in Florida’s 26th Congressional District was conducted between Oct. 19 and Oct. 24. A total of 499 surveys were completed after 26,474 dials were attempted to phones in the district. The margin of error is ±4.9.
Most experts have pointed to Curbelo as one of the most endangered incumbents in the country. And the New York Times survey is only the latest polling boost for Mucarsel-Powell, who surged in several, consecutive recent polls and decisively closed the gap on her opponent as Election Day approaches:
  • A Mason-Dixon poll showed Curbelo up by a single point, 46-45, in early October;
  • Debbie led Curbelo 50-48 in a poll conducted early this month by GBA Strategies, the first poll this cycle in which either candidate got 50% of the vote;
  • She edged Curbelo by one point, 49-48, in a survey of 500 likely voters released by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research;
  • And a similar survey by Public Policy Polling (PPP) showed Mucarsel-Powell leading Curbelo by one point, 45-44.